ACH Exercise Paper

ACH Exercise Paper

 

ACH Step One: Identify Possible Scenario Outcomes (Hypotheses)
Number Hypothesis
Hypothesis #1 In the interest of diffusing tensions, the Taiwanese and PRC government sent officials to conduct discussions in the hope of resolving issues.
Hypothesis #2 TSU successfully wins the election and declares independence for Taiwan while subsequently declaring war with China and neglecting the international community’s recommendations.
Hypothesis #3 Economic sanctions and blockades are instituted to attempt to influence the subsequent election outcomes and express discontent.
Hypothesis #4 PRC uses influence to influence the election in favor of KMT but without the use of military forces.
Hypothesis #5 Disputed election results KMT wins the election in Taiwan, and the TSU causes civil unrest within the country, causing significant disruption in the international community.
  Points Possible 5.0
  Points Earned  

 

 

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Note: Grades for ACH Steps 2-6 will be entered directly into the Educator system

 

ACH Step Two: Evidence For and Evidence Against Each Hypothesis
ACH Steps Three and Four: Assess Evidence for “Diagnosticity” and Eliminate Evidence

ACH Steps Five and Six: (5) Eliminate Hypotheses” and (6) Identify Linchpin Evidence

Hypothesis ➔
🡻 Evidence
(H1a) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will be resolved diplomatically. (H1)
Political Solution
(H2)
Limited.
Intervention
(H3)
Direct Attack
🡻 Evidence #1 30 days before the election, OSINT indicated that Hu Jianto spoke with General Ban Ki-Moon, then secretary of the UN, to discuss intervention measures      
🡻 Evidence #2 Fifty days prior, the Washington Times ran a story with two unnamed pentagon sources indicating that Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian agreed to send representatives to the mainland to resolve the current crisis.      
🡻 Evidence #3 Twenty-five days before the election, the rising tension and recent announcement of the U.S stance led the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to “immediately address the brewing crisis.”      
Hypothesis ➔
🡻 Evidence
(H1b) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will not be resolved diplomatically. (H1)
Political Solution
(H2)
Limited.
Intervention
(H3)
Direct Attack
🡻 Evidence #1 Sixty-five days prior, the prospects of a diplomatic solution were impeded when Chen Shui-bian increased the Taiwanese defense forces’ alertness.      
🡻 Evidence #2 Sixty days before the election, Shu Chin-Chiang claimed that Taiwan and the PRC were developing “unique, defining characteristics” and caused each entity to take “divergent paths.” A dramatic rise followed this in military communication between PRC, PLA, PLAAF, and PLAN units.      
🡻 Evidence #3 A mere 45 days before the election, footage from satellite imagery showed two PLAN anti-ship submarines departing from Ningbo’s port. Moreover, the footage showed “launching of cruise missiles against surface targets and air-to-air-combat.”      
Hypothesis ➔
🡻 Evidence
(H2a) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will be resolved with limited intervention. (H1)
Political Solution
(H2)
Limited.
Intervention
(H3)
Direct Attack
🡻 Evidence #1 Thirty days in USAF Electronic intelligence reports that the 96th Missile Regiment located near Nanping is calibrating military equipment for an unidentified strike target.      
🡻 Evidence #2 Similarly, 30 days before the election, correspondence between unknown PLA sources alleged that PLAF Fighters were conducting military operations just off the Taiwan Strait coast.      
🡻 Evidence #3 Sixty-five days before the election, Chen Shui-bian decided to increase the readiness level of Taiwan’s forces. PLA staff announced that there would be a series of naval military exercises that were unrelated to the events transpiring.      
Hypothesis ➔
🡻 Evidence
(H2b) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will not be resolved with limited intervention. (H1)
Political Solution
(H2)
Limited.
Intervention
(H3)
Direct Attack
🡻 Evidence #1 At the 20 day mark, the prospects for resolution were abysmal as Xinhua announces that the PRC will conduct a series of missile tests near the Taiwan Strait.      
🡻 Evidence #2 US Strategic Command identifies the 99th and 98th missile regiments successfully fired two CSS-6 missiles into a test location in Central China (40 days prior)      
🡻 Evidence #3 Fifty-five days prior, Pacific Command reports that flight activity in “Shantou, Fuzhou, and Luqiao air force bases” has risen significantly in the last 48 hours.      
Hypothesis ➔
🡻 Evidence
(H3a) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will be resolved with a direct attack. (H1)
Political Solution
(H2)
Limited.
Intervention
(H3)
Direct Attack
🡻 Evidence #1 Much like earlier, on day 30 before the election, USAF intelligence reported the calibration of SRMs in preparation for a CSS-6 launch near Nanping.      
🡻 Evidence #2 20 Days prior, image intelligence was received, revealing that the naval ports of Zhangzhou and Whenzhou were deploying several amphibious war assault vehicles and loading supplies.      
🡻 Evidence #3 B-6 PLA bombers are identified at Luqiao airfield, uploading an unknown air-to-surface missile and munitions. (20 days prior).      
Hypothesis ➔
🡻 Evidence
(H3b) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will not be resolved with a direct attack. (H1)
Political Solution
(H2)
Limited.
Intervention
(H3)
Direct Attack
🡻 Evidence #1 PRC newspapers report that the amphibious assault vehicles and squadrons were simply performing a large-scale training exercise (35 days prior).      
🡻 Evidence #2 The strategy is shifting from Ma’s rhetoric, who appears to attack Shu in the hope that the Taiwanese people will recognize “common sense” over general nationalist sentiments (40 days prior).      
🡻 Evidence #3 When Chen Shui-bian increased the Taiwan forces’ alertness, it was done to portray a purely defensive posture designed to showcase to the Taiwanese people that their ability to elect a president will be free from external influence and intervention. (Day 65).      
  Points Possible  
  Points Earned  

 

 

Note: Grades for Step Eight  will be entered directly into the Educator system

 

Week 8 – ACH Step Eight: Develop Indicators
Indicator
Description
#1  
#2  
#3  
#4  
#5  
#6  
#7  
#8  
#8  
#10  
 
Timeliness Were the indicators submitted on time (points subtracted)?    
  Possible 10.0
  Earned