Climate Change Simulation Assignment This lab uses a robust model of the carbon cycle to give you an intuitive sense for how carbon circulates through the atmosphere, biosphere, oceans, and crust. This model is similar to ones presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It allows you to experiment with how human input to the cycle might change global outcomes to the year 2100 and beyond. One particularly relevant human impact is the increase in atmospheric carbo dioxide (CO2 levels). Between the years 1850 and 2015, atmospheric concentrations have risen from 290 parts per million (ppm) to over 400 ppm – a level higher than any known on Earth in more than 30 million years. See the graph below from the BCC greenhouse gas monitor atop Meister Hall which shows that the atmospheric carbon Dioxide is definitely above 400 ppm levels. The second graph shows how increasing carbon dioxide levels (black line) leads to increasing atmospheric temperature (red line) from ice core samples collected from Antarctica. Using the simulator, you will experiment with the human factors that contribute to this rise and explore how different fossil fuel use and deforestation might affect the concentrations of the greenhouse gas CO2. Procedure Seasons/Climate Simulation Assignment 1. Copy the following link for the simulation model and open in a different tab on your internet browser: https://test-learnermedia.pantheonsite.io/wp-content/interactive/envsci/carbon/carbon.html 2. The data for the simulation model for a Deforestation Rate of 1GT and a Fossil Fuels Use of 2% has already been recorded in your data Table 1 and Table 2. 3. Keeping the Net Deforestation Rate at 1 GT change the fossil fuel use to 2.5%, 2.8%, 3.0%, 3.2%, 3.4%, 3.6%, 3.8% and 1.5% making sure to press the Run Decade button after each change and record the ppm CO2 in and corresponding year in the Table 1 below. 4. Keeping the Fossil Fuel Use constant at 2% change the Net Deforestation Rate to 1.4 GT, 1.8 GT, 2.2 GT, 2.6 GT, 3.0 GT, 3.6 GT, 4.0 GT and 0.5 GT making sure to press the Run Decade button after each change and record the ppm CO2 and corresponding year in the Table 2 below. 5. Write a 1 page summary (Times New Roman, 12 pt Font, Double Space) explaining what the data in Tables 1 and Table 2 is telling YOU. 6. Submit the table and the two paragraphs as a single Microsoft Word or pdf document in the appropriate folder on your Blackboard course site by the deadline given by your class instructor. Climate Change Simulation Assignment Name: ______________________ Table 1 – Effect of Fossil Fuel Use on CO2 (Change Fossil Use –Keep Deforestation Same) Year 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2060 2070 2080 Change in Fossil Fuel Use (%) 2 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 0.5 Net Deforestation Rate per Yr (GT) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 CO2 (ppm) Table 2 – Effect of Deforestation on CO2 (Change Deforestation –Keep Fossil Use Same) Year 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2060 2070 2080 Change in Fossil Fuel Use (%) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Net Deforestation Rate per Yr (GT) 1 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 4.0 0.5 CO2 (ppm) …
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